Wed, Feb 22, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Calgary Flames 6, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 118 | 220 | 313 | 651 |
| ARI | 03 | 37 | 05 | 315 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:39CGYMilan LucicAssists: Walker Duehr, Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 1:11ARINick SchmaltzPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Juuso Välimäki · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 9:31ARIClayton KellerUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG1–2
- P2 11:06ARIMatias MaccelliUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 12:58CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.27 xG2–3
- P2 14:00CGYTyler ToffoliAssists: Dillon Dube, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 4:53CGYJakob PelletierPPGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Dillon Dube · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 5:17CGYWalker DuehrAssists: Chris Tanev, MacKenzie Weegar · Backhand, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 16:41CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Jakob Pelletier, Andrew Mangiapane · Backhand, 0.07 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 0:42CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:09ARIClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:51ARILiam O'Brien: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 0:40CGYRasmus Andersson: Interference2 min
- P3 3:16ARIMatias Maccelli: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:28ARIJuuso Välimäki: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:37ARIVictor Soderstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:47
xG 1.16–0.22 (84%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube11:14
xG 0.48–0.30 (62%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pelletier10:10
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Duehr9:55
xG 0.59–1.20 (33%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson16:03
xG 0.75–0.45 (62%)attempts 22–11goals 0–1
- Zadorov – Gilbert13:13
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Tanev – Weegar16:11
xG 1.12–1.38 (45%)attempts 23–9goals 1–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:44
xG 1.40–0.73 (66%)attempts 9–18goals 1–2
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli11:43
xG 0.48–0.55 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Boyd – Ritchie – Fischer8:15
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- O'Brien – Ritchie – McBain3:00
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Välimäki16:10
xG 1.89–1.44 (57%)attempts 16–29goals 2–3
- Nemeth – Moser12:44
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Stecher – Soderstrom11:05
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).