Thu, Feb 23, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Boston Bruins 6, Seattle Kraken 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 110 | 312 | 211 | 633 |
| SEA | 115 | 310 | 116 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:40SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Jared McCann, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 11:18BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Pavel Zacha, David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 1:17SEAVince DunnAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 2:23BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: David Krejci, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 8:49BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 9:47SEAJamie OleksiakAssists: Morgan Geekie, Jesper Froden · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 17:51BOSPatrice BergeronSHAssists: Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
- P2 18:53SEAYanni GourdePPAssists: Matty Beniers, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 15:50SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Will Borgen, Jamie Oleksiak · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–5
- P3 16:19BOSBrandon CarloAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–5
- P3 18:22BOSJake DeBruskGWGAssists: Charlie McAvoy · Tip-in, 0.06 xG6–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:57BOSBrad Marchand: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:13BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:39SEAYanni Gourde: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:39BOSA.J. Greer: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:00BOSCharlie McAvoy: Holding2 min
- P3 6:16BOSNick Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:29SEAVince Dunn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:22BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:22SEAOliver Bjorkstrand: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak2:41
xG 0.63–0.01 (99%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk7:46
xG 0.94–0.33 (74%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Foligno – Greer – Frederic2:14
xG 0.05–0.04 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Coyle – Hall3:38
xG 0.03–0.08 (27%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy9:27
xG 1.13–0.61 (65%)attempts 16–15goals 3–2
- Forbort – Clifton5:45
xG 0.48–0.13 (78%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo5:03
xG 0.33–0.15 (68%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Wennberg – Froden9:25
xG 0.56–0.38 (59%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Donato – Tanev – Geekie7:37
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen9:21
xG 0.81–0.85 (49%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers8:19
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Soucy11:07
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Larsson – Dunn16:58
xG 1.18–1.30 (48%)attempts 24–20goals 1–3
- Oleksiak – Borgen15:01
xG 0.63–1.11 (36%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).