Fri, Feb 24, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 3, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 014 | 29 | 110 | 333 |
| FLA | 011 | 015 | 124 | 150 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:51BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 8:44BUFAlex TuchPPGWGAssists: Owen Power, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 8:24FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Anthony Duclair, Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 10:36BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:38BUFPeyton Krebs: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:48BUFPeyton Krebs: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:48FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:48FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:23FLACarter Verhaeghe: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:37FLACarter Verhaeghe: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:37BUFJack Quinn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:45BUFHenri Jokiharju: Interference2 min
- P2 18:10BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:00FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Luostarinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson9:57
xG 0.71–0.46 (61%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Jost8:44
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Mittelstadt – Krebs – Quinn9:28
xG 0.16–0.52 (24%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Cozens – Peterka8:19
xG 0.32–0.80 (29%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jokiharju – Power12:20
xG 0.38–0.48 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Clague – Lyubushkin9:07
xG 0.16–0.43 (27%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin17:21
xG 0.71–1.34 (35%)attempts 18–28goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Cousins – Lomberg10:21
xG 1.18–0.14 (90%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Tkachuk – Luostarinen6:20
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Tkachuk – Lundell5:31
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Dalpe – White – Denisenko3:53
xG 0.12–0.14 (47%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura12:00
xG 0.87–0.29 (75%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling13:50
xG 1.08–0.72 (60%)attempts 22–14goals 0–2
- Staal – Montour15:15
xG 0.69–0.56 (55%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).