Fri, Feb 24, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Minnesota Wild 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 16 | 012 | 07 | 00 | 125 |
| TOR | 19 | 010 | 03 | 12 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:10MINBrandon DuhaimeAssists: Frederick Gaudreau · Snap, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 16:07TORDavid KampfAssists: William Nylander, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- OT 1:05TORWilliam NylanderGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 7:15MINMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:31MINJake Middleton: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:18TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Greenway – Duhaime8:20
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov12:39
xG 0.55–0.46 (55%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Boldy10:39
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar8:25
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Dumba19:06
xG 1.05–0.33 (76%)attempts 24–12goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton19:39
xG 1.02–0.67 (61%)attempts 24–17goals 1–0
- Mermis – Addison9:38
xG 0.24–0.56 (30%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Acciari – Aston-Reese6:15
xG 0.22–0.07 (76%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Tavares – Marner10:21
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Kerfoot – Kampf4:44
xG 0.09–0.13 (41%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews11:24
xG 0.40–0.71 (36%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brodie – Holl2:54
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Brodie – Timmins12:57
xG 0.32–0.45 (42%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Holl – Rielly14:56
xG 0.22–0.50 (31%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).