Sat, Feb 25, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Dallas Stars 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 122 | 113 | 03 | 2 | 343 |
| VGK | 014 | 16 | 116 | 07 | 0 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:00VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Brayden McNabb, Shea Theodore · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 14:01DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Ty Dellandrea, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 15:23VGKJack EichelAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 19:22DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. VGK Paul Cotter stopped
- 2. DAL Jason Robertson scored
- 3. VGK Jack Eichel stopped
- 4. DAL Roope Hintz scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:01VGKWilliam Carrier: Interference2 min
- P1 14:01VGKWilliam Carrier: Abuse of officials2 min
- P1 18:09DALTy Dellandrea: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 2:54VGKKeegan Kolesar: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:55VGKBrayden McNabb: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:27DALRyan Suter: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dellandrea – Johnston7:30
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Seguin – Faksa – Marchment11:04
xG 0.83–0.58 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Benn – Olofsson – Gurianov2:26
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:07
xG 0.56–0.63 (47%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Lundkvist6:19
xG 0.64–0.23 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Lundkvist4:23
xG 0.38–0.09 (80%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell12:56
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestFroese – Kolesar – Howden6:51
xG 0.87–0.03 (97%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Amadio9:21
xG 0.42–0.30 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Stephenson – Eichel3:37
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Kessel – Stephenson – Carrier8:22
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo15:45
xG 0.84–0.65 (56%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Hague – Whitecloud11:52
xG 0.63–0.47 (57%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore16:16
xG 0.77–0.70 (52%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).