Mon, Feb 27, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Boston Bruins 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 210 | 19 | 09 | 328 |
| EDM | 17 | 19 | 08 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 2:30BOSTomas NosekAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 15:06BOSNick FolignoAssists: Charlie Coyle, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 12:20EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Klim Kostin, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 19:30BOSPavel ZachaGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Derek Forbort · Poke, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 7:18BOSHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P2 10:05EDMKlim Kostin: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:52BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:36EDMKailer Yamamoto: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:30EDMKlim Kostin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 17:34EDMVincent Desharnais: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk9:08
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Nosek – Greer4:41
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
- Foligno – Coyle – Frederic7:31
xG 0.44–0.49 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha8:35
xG 0.20–0.47 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Clifton11:10
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy2:04
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Orlov – McAvoy15:24
xG 0.66–0.83 (44%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Yamamoto2:10
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid7:35
xG 0.58–0.32 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Ryan – Puljujarvi – Kostin3:43
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid3:42
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouchard – Broberg5:44
xG 0.48–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Barrie – Nurse2:55
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Barrie – Bouchard3:12
xG 0.33–0.18 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).