Tue, Feb 28, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Los Angeles Kings 6, Winnipeg Jets 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 011 | 314 | 29 | 03 | 1 | 637 |
| WPG | 29 | 39 | 010 | 03 | 0 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:52WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Poke, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 17:35WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Dylan DeMelo · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 0:26LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 6:08WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 9:14LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Alexander Edler, Quinton Byfield · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 10:43LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Drew Doughty · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- P2 12:00WPGKevin StenlundAssists: Josh Morrissey, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P2 18:26WPGKevin StenlundSHAssists: Adam Lowry · Snap, 0.17 xG3–5
- P3 1:26LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Carl Grundstrom, Sean Durzi · Slap, 0.10 xG4–5
- P3 15:54LAKGabriel VilardiAssists: Blake Lizotte, Alex Iafallo · Snap, 0.14 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. WPG Mark Scheifele stopped
- 2. LAK Gabriel Vilardi stopped
- 3. WPG Kyle Connor stopped
- 4. LAK Adrian Kempe scored
- 5. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:58LAKAlexander Edler: Interference2 min
- P2 0:20WPGNeal Pionk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:15WPGLogan Stanley: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:58WPGBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:09WPGNino Niederreiter: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 18:09WPGNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:09LAKAdrian Kempe: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:21LAKAdrian Kempe: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:19LAKBlake Lizotte: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Byfield10:41
xG 0.78–0.21 (79%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Grundstrom – Kupari – Kaliyev5:04
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Vilardi – Iafallo – Lizotte10:33
xG 0.59–0.50 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Danault – Fiala – Arvidsson12:44
xG 0.06–0.93 (6%)attempts 14–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson19:51
xG 1.18–1.03 (53%)attempts 23–20goals 2–2
- Edler – Walker10:22
xG 0.42–0.52 (45%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Roy – Durzi14:15
xG 0.38–0.65 (37%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Connor9:33
xG 0.80–0.27 (75%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
- Stenlund – Barron – Kuhlman5:30
xG 0.55–0.03 (94%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Scheifele – Ehlers2:02
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Ehlers5:03
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey12:10
xG 1.40–0.35 (80%)attempts 23–15goals 4–0
- Schmidt – Stanley3:10
xG 0.09–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Morrissey2:33
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).