Tue, Feb 28, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Seattle Kraken 5, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 18 | 210 | 28 | 526 |
| STL | 011 | 29 | 15 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:30SEAMorgan GeekieAssists: Daniel Sprong, Adam Larsson · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 5:11STLRobert ThomasSHAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 6:57SEAJared McCannAssists: Vince Dunn, Eeli Tolvanen · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 9:03STLBrandon SaadAssists: Nick Leddy, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 13:32SEAMorgan GeekieAssists: Daniel Sprong, Justin Schultz · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 9:46SEAJamie OleksiakGWGAssists: Ryan Donato, Eeli Tolvanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 14:29STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 19:53SEABrandon TanevENAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.72 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 2:23SEAJustin Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:52STLTyler Pitlick: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:11SEACarson Soucy: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:01STLRobert Thomas: Interference2 min
- P2 14:20SEAJustin Schultz: Holding2 min
- P3 4:52SEAVince Dunn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg9:03
xG 0.37–0.08 (83%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Sprong – Tanev – Geekie7:26
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 8–7goals 2–1
- Gourde – Donato – Tolvanen8:52
xG 0.26–0.18 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers10:14
xG 0.04–0.36 (11%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Soucy11:32
xG 0.44–0.15 (74%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen13:09
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn16:53
xG 0.47–0.53 (47%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kapanen – Thomas11:38
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Blais – Brown – Toropchenko8:46
xG 0.11–0.25 (31%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Walker – Alexandrov7:06
xG 0.17–0.32 (35%)attempts 6–6goals 0–2
- Schenn – Saad – Kyrou12:30
xG 0.24–0.60 (29%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko14:36
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Scandella – Faulk13:55
xG 0.42–0.38 (52%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug3:52
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).