Wed, Mar 1, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Arizona Coyotes 2, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 25 | 09 | 06 | 220 |
| DAL | 111 | 116 | 214 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:28ARIBarrett HaytonAssists: Juuso Välimäki, J.J. Moser · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 13:47ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Juuso Välimäki, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 18:43DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 1:50DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Wyatt Johnston · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 4:38DALMiro HeiskanenGWGAssists: Colin Miller, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 16:12DALTyler SeguinSHAssists: Radek Faksa · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:46ARILiam O'Brien: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:06DALMason Marchment: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:43DALMason Marchment: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:11DALColin Miller: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:11ARIBarrett Hayton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:48ARIVictor Soderstrom: Interference2 min
- P3 5:35ARIJuuso Välimäki: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:29DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:51DALColin Miller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton4:21
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Ritchie – Keller – Hayton4:17
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kassian – O'Brien – Dauphin6:49
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Crouse – McBain – Maccelli7:46
xG 0.15–0.26 (36%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStecher – Soderstrom3:04
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Moser11:35
xG 0.59–0.66 (47%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Stecher – Välimäki10:46
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Olofsson – Karlstrom8:16
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:33
xG 0.72–0.58 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Seguin – Marchment – Dellandrea7:58
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston6:14
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Lundkvist8:04
xG 0.71–0.15 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Heiskanen11:25
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Suter – Hakanpää2:07
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).