Thu, Mar 2, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York
Ottawa Senators 5, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 214 | 312 | 534 |
| NYR | 112 | 214 | 06 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:31NYRChris KreiderSHAssists: Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 9:42OTTShane PintoAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 10:03OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Dylan Gambrell · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 12:15NYRJacob TroubaAssists: Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 14:54NYRVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Ben Harpur · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 1:35OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 3:26OTTClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Travis Hamonic, Brady Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 17:18OTTTim StützleENAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.80 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:00NYRJimmy Vesey: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:49OTTAustin Watson: Charging5 min
- P1 12:49OTTAustin Watson: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 19:26OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:20OTTJakob Chychrun: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:33NYRBraden Schneider: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:52OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min
- P2 19:16NYRNiko Mikkola: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle10:25
xG 1.06–0.32 (77%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto11:30
xG 0.89–0.77 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Brassard – Joseph – Gambrell3:35
xG 0.13–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Brassard – Watson – Kastelic2:21
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub13:49
xG 1.50–0.55 (73%)attempts 21–9goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Sanderson11:01
xG 0.67–0.40 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Holden – Chychrun10:32
xG 0.21–0.80 (20%)attempts 4–14goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Tarasenko – Zibanejad9:04
xG 0.68–0.49 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière7:10
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
- Kane – Trocheck – Panarin10:25
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 1–2
- Goodrow – Vesey – Lafrenière2:21
xG 0.09–0.40 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Harpur6:51
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Trouba – Mikkola4:21
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Harpur – Schneider3:43
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).