Fri, Mar 3, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
New Jersey Devils 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 217 | 010 | 114 | 09 | 0 | 350 |
| VGK | 14 | 114 | 19 | 00 | 1 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:48VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Brayden McNabb, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 15:16NJDJesper BrattPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 19:32NJDDawson MercerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 12:50VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 3:47VGKJack EichelAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 12:53NJDMiles WoodAssists: Jesper Boqvist · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NJD Tomas Tatar stopped
- 2. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 3. NJD Dougie Hamilton stopped
- 4. VGK Jack Eichel stopped
- 5. NJD Dawson Mercer stopped
- 6. VGK Reilly Smith stopped
- 7. NJD Jesper Bratt stopped
- 8. VGK Shea Theodore scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:41VGKBrett Howden: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:25NJDDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:22VGKMichael Amadio: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:01NJDOndrej Palat: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Hischier – Mercer12:46
xG 2.30–0.33 (88%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes3:12
xG 0.22–0.03 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Bratt – Sharangovich – Hughes6:09
xG 0.56–0.46 (55%)attempts 13–5goals 0–2
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod9:42
xG 0.49–0.44 (53%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Marino19:32
xG 1.24–0.38 (76%)attempts 28–9goals 1–2
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler14:09
xG 0.46–0.80 (37%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Severson – Bahl12:32
xG 0.19–0.59 (24%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Stephenson – Barbashev2:36
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Blueger – Barbashev – Kolesar4:03
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kessel – Smith – Karlsson2:34
xG 0.10–0.02 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Marchessault – Eichel2:21
xG 0.14–0.08 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Martinez – Theodore7:25
xG 0.31–0.33 (48%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- McNabb – Whitecloud5:46
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
- Martinez – Whitecloud2:58
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).