Sat, Mar 4, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Detroit Red Wings 1, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 06 | 16 | 011 | 123 |
| NYI | 016 | 09 | 411 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:59DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Robby Fabbri · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P3 2:11NYIZach PariseAssists: Sebastian Aho, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 4:39NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Hudson Fasching, Casey Cizikas · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 15:41NYIKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 17:22NYIAnders LeeAssists: Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:12NYINoah Dobson: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:34DETRobby Fabbri: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:15NYIBo Horvat: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:25NYIBo Horvat: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:17DETDavid Perron: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestVeleno – Zadina – Berggren10:53
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Perron – Larkin – Raymond4:59
xG 0.20–0.15 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Kubalik – Copp – Fabbri5:31
xG 0.11–0.21 (34%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Erne – Suter8:18
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Oesterle2:13
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Maatta – Hagg2:10
xG 0.01–0.00 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hagg – Oesterle9:33
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Engvall12:27
xG 0.65–0.26 (71%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Fasching10:36
xG 0.43–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Bailey – Koivula – Holmstrom6:41
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Parise – Palmieri – Nelson8:34
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAho – Dobson11:00
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pelech11:14
xG 0.43–0.17 (71%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Pulock – Aho2:55
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).