Sat, Mar 4, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 014 | 09 | 114 | 137 |
| VAN | 05 | 111 | 38 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:51VANAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 1:32TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 6:49VANElias PetterssonSHGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 7:33VANJ.T. MillerSHAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 12:34VANNils AmanAssists: Brock Boeser, Phillip Di Giuseppe · Snap, 0.22 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:59TORJake McCabe: Instigator2 min
- P1 0:59VANTyler Myers: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:59TORJake McCabe: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:59TORJake McCabe: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 6:01TORNoel Acciari: Holding2 min
- P1 13:28VANNils Aman: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 0:32VANNoah Juulsen: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:32TORMorgan Rielly: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:45VANTyler Myers: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:31VANPhillip Di Giuseppe: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Lafferty – Bunting2:58
xG 0.20–0.05 (79%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Marner – Matthews7:08
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Acciari – Kampf2:33
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Nylander2:25
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Brodie4:29
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- McCabe – Gustafsson2:10
xG 0.06–0.01 (81%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Brodie – McCabe7:29
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser10:19
xG 0.46–0.18 (73%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Pettersson – Kuzmenko9:02
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Joshua – Garland – Aman5:01
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Dries – Kravtsov – Podkolzin6:03
xG 0.02–0.45 (5%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Brisebois6:52
xG 0.78–0.41 (66%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Burroughs – Brisebois2:59
xG 0.16–0.06 (71%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Juulsen – Hughes8:09
xG 0.20–0.14 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).