Sat, Mar 4, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Nashville Predators 3, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 19 | 17 | 19 | 325 |
| CHI | 19 | 08 | 011 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:37CHISeth JonesAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Lukas Reichel · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 9:36NSHPhilip TomasinoPPAssists: Yakov Trenin, Kiefer Sherwood · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 12:08NSHTyson BarrieGWGAssists: Tommy Novak, Ryan McDonagh · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 19:30NSHColton SissonsENAssists: Yakov Trenin, Cole Smith · Wrist, 0.59 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:58CHIJason Dickinson: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:36CHIAndreas Englund: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:36NSHYakov Trenin: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:39NSHKiefer Sherwood: Interference2 min
- P2 15:01CHICole Guttman: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00CHIAndreas Englund: Holding2 min
- P3 9:24NSHTommy Novak: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:54NSHRoman Josi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:54CHICaleb Jones: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kurashev won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Asplund – Leonard2:46
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith7:44
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista6:47
xG 0.38–0.27 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Duchene – Glass – Leonard6:59
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Foote11:11
xG 0.38–0.33 (54%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro12:40
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Barrie12:57
xG 0.67–0.65 (51%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Raddysh – Guttman10:10
xG 0.87–0.32 (73%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Khaira – Anderson – Katchouk7:19
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Kurashev – Reichel8:59
xG 0.26–0.66 (29%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Dickinson – Bjork – Entwistle10:28
xG 0.12–0.72 (15%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Jones14:52
xG 1.07–0.75 (59%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Tinordi – Murphy13:46
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Englund – Zaitsev10:39
xG 0.17–0.79 (17%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).