Sun, Mar 5, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Detroit Red Wings 1, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 110 | 05 | 011 | 126 |
| PHI | 014 | 29 | 114 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:51DETDavid PerronAssists: Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 6:53PHINicolas DeslauriersSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 12:57PHINoah CatesGWGAssists: Nick Seeler, Rasmus Ristolainen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 18:12PHIScott LaughtonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:56DETDominik Kubalik: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:10PHINick Seeler: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:40PHIJoel Farabee: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:09DETDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:38DETMoritz Seider: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:08PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:08DETAdam Erne: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Fabbri – Veleno – Berggren8:05
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Larkin – Zadina – Raymond11:27
xG 0.56–0.59 (49%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Perron – Kubalik – Copp12:04
xG 0.27–0.66 (29%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Erne – Suter7:07
xG 0.00–0.52 (0%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hagg – Oesterle13:53
xG 0.60–0.71 (46%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Maatta15:03
xG 0.38–0.54 (41%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Walman – Seider13:09
xG 0.45–0.88 (34%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hayes – Allison8:37
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Allison – Frost – Farabee3:07
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Tippett – Frost – Farabee7:36
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Laughton – Lemieux – Cates11:04
xG 0.56–0.35 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – DeAngelo7:30
xG 0.93–0.07 (93%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Provorov – York12:08
xG 0.71–0.69 (50%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim11:05
xG 0.25–0.27 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).