Mon, Mar 6, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Edmonton Oilers 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 120 | 16 | 111 | 337 |
| BUF | 115 | 013 | 111 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:21EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ryan McLeod, Cody Ceci · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 9:45BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Tage Thompson · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 18:45EDMDerek RyanAssists: Devin Shore, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 0:41BUFDylan CozensAssists: Jacob Bryson, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 3:23EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Warren Foegele, Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:02EDMZach Hyman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:37BUFTage Thompson: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:42EDMEvan Bouchard: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestShore – Ryan – Kostin8:04
xG 0.82–0.29 (74%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto12:14
xG 1.09–0.73 (60%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – Janmark – Foegele5:03
xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Foegele – McDavid4:44
xG 0.39–0.43 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Desharnais13:22
xG 1.00–0.50 (66%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse18:00
xG 1.08–0.84 (56%)attempts 18–16goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard16:36
xG 1.11–1.06 (51%)attempts 16–19goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Thompson – Quinn13:43
xG 1.28–0.53 (71%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Peterka4:55
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Greenway3:25
xG 0.06–0.13 (30%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Mittelstadt – Cozens10:49
xG 0.73–0.91 (45%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin8:18
xG 0.51–0.10 (84%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Clague – Dahlin2:20
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bryson – Dahlin6:00
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).