Mon, Mar 6, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 5, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 117 | 214 | 27 | 538 |
| DAL | 010 | 28 | 215 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:53CGYNick RitchieAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar · Poke, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 4:51CGYNikita ZadorovAssists: Troy Stecher, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 11:48DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 15:42DALMax DomiAssists: Mason Marchment, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.26 xG2–2
- P2 17:53CGYElias LindholmUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG3–2
- P3 4:24CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 9:49DALRoope HintzSHAssists: Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 14:12DALJamie BennAssists: Esa Lindell, Jani Hakanpää · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–4
- P3 19:53CGYTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:53DALMiro Heiskanen: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:30CGYChris Tanev: Holding2 min
- P2 8:49CGYDillon Dube: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:25CGYNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:26DALMiro Heiskanen: Holding2 min
- P3 17:02CGYNick Ritchie: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Lindholm – Pelletier9:47
xG 1.57–0.24 (87%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Ritchie10:02
xG 1.04–0.61 (63%)attempts 16–6goals 2–2
- Lewis – Lucic – Dube10:14
xG 0.04–0.25 (14%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:10
xG 0.33–1.05 (24%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Stecher13:25
xG 0.92–0.46 (67%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Tanev – Hanifin13:36
xG 1.24–0.94 (57%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
- Weegar – Andersson14:51
xG 0.87–0.74 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:47
xG 0.73–0.35 (68%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Seguin – Domi – Marchment11:46
xG 0.65–0.79 (45%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston10:23
xG 0.55–0.70 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Faksa – Dellandrea – Kiviranta7:05
xG 0.13–1.13 (10%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Lundkvist12:15
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Heiskanen2:16
xG 0.06–0.02 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell13:42
xG 0.62–0.88 (41%)attempts 8–17goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).