Tue, Mar 7, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 310 | 19 | 08 | 00 | 427 |
| PIT | 07 | 116 | 318 | 16 | 547 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:02CBJEmil BemstromPPAssists: Cole Sillinger, Kent Johnson · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 7:54CBJLane PedersonAssists: Liam Foudy · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 10:11CBJPatrik LaineAssists: Jack Roslovic, Kent Johnson · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 2:37CBJLiam FoudyAssists: Emil Bemstrom · Snap, 0.08 xG4–0
- P2 10:23PITJason ZuckerAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Alex Nylander · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 0:21PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 3:16PITJason ZuckerAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 3:59PITDanton HeinenAssists: Rickard Rakell, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–4
- OT 2:45PITSidney CrosbyPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.21 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:16PITJan Rutta: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:08CBJPatrik Laine: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:29PITDrew O'Connor: Interference2 min
- OT 1:13CBJBoone Jenner: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestPederson – Bemstrom – Foudy7:55
xG 0.73–0.37 (67%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Olivier – Robinson – Sillinger10:57
xG 0.11–0.57 (16%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
- Roslovic – Laine – Johnson13:26
xG 0.54–1.26 (30%)attempts 10–21goals 1–2
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Marchenko13:14
xG 0.33–1.30 (20%)attempts 8–30goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPeeke – Bayreuther4:08
xG 0.59–0.10 (86%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Peeke – Boqvist2:46
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Bayreuther – Blankenburg3:59
xG 0.08–0.10 (42%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Guentzel17:38
xG 1.32–0.39 (77%)attempts 33–10goals 1–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Nylander8:52
xG 0.75–0.19 (80%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Carter – Heinen – O'Connor6:14
xG 0.45–0.07 (86%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Nylander – O'Connor2:26
xG 0.50–0.19 (72%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Dumoulin9:56
xG 0.94–0.10 (90%)attempts 19–3goals 2–0
- Letang – Pettersson11:19
xG 0.84–0.58 (59%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Letang – Dumoulin7:12
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).