Tue, Mar 7, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 05 | 114 | 36 | 425 |
| NJD | 015 | 19 | 29 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:30TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: William Nylander, Sam Lafferty · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 16:47NJDErik HaulaAssists: Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.26 xG1–1
- P3 4:57TORMitch MarnerSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 6:00NJDOndrej PalatPPAssists: Dawson Mercer, Erik Haula · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 9:02NJDErik HaulaAssists: Ondrej Palat, Jesper Boqvist · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 15:10TORMichael BuntingAssists: David Kampf, Justin Holl · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 17:07TORAuston MatthewsPPGWGAssists: William Nylander, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:21TORTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:39NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:31TORPontus Holmberg: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 4:03TORWilliam Nylander: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:08NJDTimo Meier: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Acciari – Aston-Reese – Kampf7:36
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Nylander – Lafferty8:05
xG 0.63–0.98 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Bunting – Holmberg – Steeves5:14
xG 0.01–0.44 (3%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Marner – Matthews12:29
xG 0.54–1.31 (29%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Rielly – Liljegren12:43
xG 0.42–0.39 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Holl – Rielly2:21
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Giordano – Holl10:19
xG 0.93–1.12 (45%)attempts 14–13goals 2–2
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Palat – Boqvist8:42
xG 0.60–0.05 (93%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hughes8:10
xG 0.83–0.35 (70%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Tatar – Bratt – Hughes3:28
xG 0.70–0.26 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod5:09
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Marino16:39
xG 1.59–0.90 (64%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler12:45
xG 0.98–0.63 (61%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Severson – Bahl12:28
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).