Tue, Mar 7, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
St. Louis Blues 2, Arizona Coyotes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 112 | 011 | 119 | 242 |
| ARI | 110 | 18 | 49 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:12STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Justin Faulk, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 12:53ARIChristian FischerAssists: Connor Mackey, Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 16:25ARINick SchmaltzPPAssists: Barrett Hayton, Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 2:01ARITravis BoydGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, J.J. Moser · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 8:18STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Robert Thomas, Tyler Tucker · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 10:59ARITravis BoydAssists: Christian Fischer, Victor Soderstrom · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–4
- P3 12:49ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 17:54ARILawson CrouseAssists: Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:12ARIConnor Mackey: Interference2 min
- P1 16:21ARIConnor Mackey: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:37STLJustin Faulk: Interference2 min
- P2 14:57STLLogan Brown: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:28ARIBarrett Hayton: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:12ARIJack McBain: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:14ARIJuuso Välimäki: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:18ARITravis Boyd: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas10:39
xG 1.01–0.10 (91%)attempts 15–3goals 2–0
- Saad – Blais – Brown7:32
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Schenn – Vrana – Kapanen11:01
xG 0.40–0.33 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Toropchenko – Alexandrov9:00
xG 0.62–0.77 (44%)attempts 10–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Tucker10:43
xG 0.79–0.28 (74%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Leddy – Parayko14:52
xG 0.76–0.59 (57%)attempts 19–8goals 1–2
- Scandella – Faulk10:49
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBoyd – Dea – Fischer7:48
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton10:03
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Crouse – McBain – Maccelli9:40
xG 0.25–0.47 (35%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Kassian – Dauphin – Imama8:41
xG 0.04–0.43 (9%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Välimäki11:03
xG 0.65–0.59 (52%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Välimäki – Moser2:49
xG 0.11–0.14 (43%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Moser12:51
xG 0.16–0.22 (41%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).