Thu, Mar 9, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Dallas Stars 10, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 316 | 218 | 515 | 1049 |
| BUF | 19 | 15 | 215 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:06DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Jani Hakanpää, Evgenii Dadonov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 19:07DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 19:25DALJamie BennAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P1 19:35BUFJordan GreenwayAssists: Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 8:37DALJoel KivirantaAssists: Jason Robertson, Joel Hanley · Snap, 0.21 xG4–1
- P2 9:51BUFKyle OkposoAssists: JJ Peterka, Ilya Lyubushkin · Snap, 0.17 xG4–2
- P2 10:38DALRyan SuterGWGAssists: Mason Marchment, Ty Dellandrea · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–2
- P3 3:49BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.02 xG5–3
- P3 9:12DALEvgenii DadonovAssists: Jamie Benn, Jani Hakanpää · Snap, 0.07 xG6–3
- P3 9:41DALRadek FaksaAssists: Max Domi, Joel Kiviranta · Wrist, 0.15 xG7–3
- P3 11:38DALRadek FaksaAssists: Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.12 xG8–3
- P3 12:15DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.12 xG9–3
- P3 12:31BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: JJ Peterka, Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.07 xG9–4
- P3 16:12DALMason MarchmentAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.03 xG10–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:24DALRoope Hintz: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:18BUFOwen Power: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:05DALRoope Hintz: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:46BUFEric Comrie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:12BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dadonov – Johnston10:34
xG 0.53–0.14 (79%)attempts 9–11goals 3–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:35
xG 0.76–0.57 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 1–2
- Seguin – Domi – Marchment2:08
xG 0.23–0.08 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Domi – Marchment – Dellandrea8:34
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell14:49
xG 1.12–0.63 (64%)attempts 17–13goals 1–3
- Suter – Hanley10:05
xG 0.63–0.19 (77%)attempts 7–6goals 3–0
- Suter – Heiskanen4:59
xG 0.47–0.05 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Jost10:41
xG 0.91–0.42 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Krebs – Peterka11:22
xG 0.27–0.85 (24%)attempts 9–17goals 1–2
- Mittelstadt – Cozens – Quinn10:20
xG 0.11–0.99 (10%)attempts 6–15goals 0–3
- Skinner – Greenway – Thompson10:50
xG 0.33–1.30 (20%)attempts 10–14goals 2–3
Defence pairs
- Jokiharju – Samuelsson2:38
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Stillman – Lyubushkin13:08
xG 0.43–0.74 (37%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
- Samuelsson – Dahlin15:07
xG 0.87–1.36 (39%)attempts 17–23goals 2–4
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).