Thu, Mar 9, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 26 | 015 | 310 | 531 |
| COL | 010 | 19 | 111 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:37LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Anze Kopitar, Matt Roy · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 17:10LAKGabriel VilardiAssists: Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 14:59COLEvan RodriguesAssists: Samuel Girard, Alex Newhook · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 0:24LAKAdrian KempeGWGAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, Anze Kopitar · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 4:24COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 4:39LAKPhillip DanaultAssists: Jordan Spence, Kevin Fiala · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 17:25LAKPhillip DanaultENAssists: Trevor Moore · Snap, 0.71 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:11COLBrad Hunt: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:44COLAlex Newhook: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:53COLAndrew Cogliano: Holding2 min
- P2 12:33LAKSean Walker: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:44LAKPhillip Danault: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:15LAKAdrian Kempe: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:47COLArtturi Lehkonen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Fiala – Arvidsson6:54
xG 0.58–0.32 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Moore – MacEwen – Kupari6:00
xG 0.26–0.14 (64%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield11:51
xG 0.37–0.35 (52%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Vilardi – Iafallo – Lizotte10:39
xG 0.29–0.50 (36%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Spence6:53
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Doughty – Anderson16:59
xG 0.76–0.90 (46%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Roy15:49
xG 0.52–0.85 (38%)attempts 9–26goals 2–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Rantanen – Rodrigues8:29
xG 0.65–0.03 (96%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Nieto – Malgin – Newhook5:33
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Compher – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:21
xG 0.05–0.09 (37%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Eller – O'Connor7:33
xG 0.11–0.38 (22%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard2:35
xG 0.32–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar10:52
xG 0.73–0.44 (62%)attempts 15–11goals 0–2
- Toews – Byram2:31
xG 0.21–0.06 (77%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).