Thu, Mar 9, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Nashville Predators 1, Arizona Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 014 | 117 | 140 |
| ARI | 118 | 013 | 312 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:45ARIBrett RitchieAssists: J.J. Moser, Christian Fischer · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 11:41ARIBarrett HaytonPPGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, Travis Boyd · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–2
- P3 12:30ARIJack McBainAssists: Lawson Crouse, Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–3
- P3 18:00NSHCody GlassAssists: Matt Duchene, Luke Evangelista · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–3
- P3 19:23ARINick SchmaltzENAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.69 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:26ARINick Schmaltz: Holding2 min
- P1 4:18ARILaurent Dauphin: Holding2 min
- P1 5:16NSHCody Glass: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:53NSHCole Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:43ARIJack McBain: Holding2 min
- P2 16:01ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:01NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:36ARIConnor Mackey: Holding2 min
- P3 5:31ARIConnor Mackey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:43NSHYakov Trenin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:48ARITravis Boyd: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 10:14NSHCody Glass: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Trenin – Smith6:58
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- McCarron – Asplund – Leonard4:12
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Duchene – Glass – Tomasino7:57
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista6:24
xG 0.32–0.81 (28%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Lauzon – Foote8:43
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro10:52
xG 0.66–0.76 (47%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Josi – Foote2:30
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestCrouse – McBain – Maccelli9:15
xG 1.22–0.48 (72%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton8:11
xG 1.03–0.57 (64%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Boyd – Ritchie – Fischer6:02
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Kassian – O'Brien – Dauphin5:52
xG 0.05–0.23 (19%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSoderstrom – Mackey10:22
xG 1.44–0.32 (82%)attempts 24–12goals 1–0
- Brown – Välimäki10:11
xG 0.73–0.32 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Moser11:54
xG 0.41–1.01 (29%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).