Thu, Mar 9, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Ottawa Senators 5, Seattle Kraken 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 316 | 08 | 27 | 531 |
| SEA | 18 | 213 | 112 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10OTTShane PintoAssists: Nick Holden, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 8:10OTTJakob ChychrunAssists: Nick Holden, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 8:27OTTPatrick BrownAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Slap, 0.25 xG3–0
- P1 11:56SEAJared McCannSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 2:11SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Vince Dunn, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 8:11SEAJared McCannAssists: Daniel Sprong, Yanni Gourde · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 3:23SEAVince DunnAssists: Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 4:01OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Tim Stützle · Slap, 0.17 xG4–4
- P3 17:37OTTAlex DeBrincatGWGAssists: Jake Sanderson, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:34SEAJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min
- P1 19:08SEAJordan Eberle: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:25OTTClaude Giroux: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:04SEADaniel Sprong: Holding2 min
- P2 11:04SEACarson Soucy: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:57OTTMathieu Joseph: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:57SEAJamie Oleksiak: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto11:44
xG 0.73–0.34 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Brown – Joseph – Gambrell8:26
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle12:47
xG 0.73–0.67 (52%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Brassard – Watson – Kastelic5:11
xG 0.06–0.15 (30%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub16:05
xG 0.99–0.50 (66%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- Holden – Chychrun11:56
xG 0.78–0.41 (66%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Holden – Hamonic2:10
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg11:10
xG 0.77–0.67 (53%)attempts 13–15goals 1–3
- Gourde – Tolvanen – Froden7:06
xG 0.22–0.16 (59%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Gourde – Tanev – Tolvanen2:11
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers9:38
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Dunn2:50
xG 0.29–0.08 (77%)attempts 4–5goals 2–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen12:58
xG 0.43–0.40 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 0–3
- Larsson – Dunn14:49
xG 0.87–0.95 (48%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).