Sat, Mar 11, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
St. Louis Blues 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 39 | 08 | 27 | 524 |
| CBJ | 110 | 07 | 122 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:19STLBrandon SaadAssists: Sammy Blais, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 9:14CBJPatrik LainePPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Nick Blankenburg · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 13:38STLJordan KyrouAssists: Robert Thomas, Sammy Blais · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P1 18:07STLSammy BlaisGWGAssists: Brandon Saad, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 12:15STLJordan KyrouAssists: Alexey Toropchenko · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 15:55CBJBoone JennerAssists: Kent Johnson, Johnny Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 18:43STLJordan KyrouENAssists: Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.74 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:45STLAlexey Toropchenko: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:47STLColton Parayko: Interference2 min
- P2 5:14CBJMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:59CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:01STLTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sillinger won the faceoff against Buchnevich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestKyrou – Thomas – Toropchenko10:58
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Leivo – Walker – Alexandrov9:42
xG 0.14–0.13 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Vrana – Kapanen10:27
xG 0.77–0.88 (47%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Blais10:36
xG 0.37–0.67 (36%)attempts 6–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Krug9:02
xG 0.34–0.10 (78%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Scandella – Faulk13:55
xG 0.98–0.88 (53%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Leddy – Parayko17:34
xG 0.11–0.93 (10%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestPederson – Bemstrom – Foudy9:20
xG 1.01–0.32 (76%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Laine – Marchenko5:37
xG 0.67–0.08 (89%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Marchenko7:36
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Olivier – Robinson – Sillinger8:08
xG 0.42–0.33 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Berni12:15
xG 1.64–0.48 (77%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Peeke – Blankenburg10:33
xG 0.69–0.44 (61%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Bayreuther – Boqvist10:25
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).