Sat, Mar 11, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Winnipeg Jets 5, Florida Panthers 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 39 | 110 | 06 | 12 | 527 |
| FLA | 119 | 117 | 28 | 04 | 448 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:43WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 15:03WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 16:44FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Brandon Montour, Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–1
- P1 19:07WPGVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–1
- P2 4:09FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk · Deflected, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 12:59WPGVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–2
- P3 0:33FLAMarc StaalAssists: Eric Staal, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 6:24FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.40 xG4–4
- OT 4:31WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:42FLABrandon Montour: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:15WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min
- P1 16:01WPGKyle Connor: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:26FLAAnton Lundell: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:07FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:55WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:10WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:46WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:46FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:14WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Namestnikov – Ehlers9:20
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Scheifele – Connor10:17
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Lowry – Appleton – Barron7:53
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Maenalanen – Stenlund – Gustafsson7:04
xG 0.01–0.86 (1%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Stanley6:58
xG 0.21–0.13 (63%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Dillon – Schmidt2:23
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Stanley – Pionk2:37
xG 0.08–0.10 (46%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk10:54
xG 1.03–0.45 (70%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Duclair – Barkov – Luostarinen11:26
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 16–3goals 0–1
- Staal – Reinhart – Lomberg4:40
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Staal – Cousins – White3:50
xG 0.08–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Montour14:03
xG 1.01–0.25 (80%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Gudas – Mahura11:28
xG 0.44–0.35 (56%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
- Ekblad – Forsling13:31
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).