Sun, Mar 12, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Vegas Golden Knights 5, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 15 | 215 | 211 | 531 |
| STL | 110 | 112 | 111 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:05VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Reilly Smith · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 13:26STLJakub VranaPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 0:28VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 2:10VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Brett Howden, Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 15:19STLJordan KyrouAssists: Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 3:41STLTyler PitlickAssists: Marco Scandella, Nathan Walker · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 5:23VGKPavel DorofeyevGWGAssists: William Karlsson, Reilly Smith · Deflected, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 19:53VGKAlex PietrangeloENAssists: Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.31 xG5–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 12:55VGKPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:59STLTyler Pitlick: Holding2 min
- P2 4:57STLBrandon Saad: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Buchnevich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Dorofeyev10:44
xG 1.21–0.20 (86%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Blueger – Amadio – Howden3:49
xG 0.05–0.06 (44%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel13:08
xG 0.50–0.55 (48%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Stephenson – Amadio – Howden8:59
xG 0.23–0.32 (41%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud14:25
xG 0.71–0.38 (65%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo17:00
xG 0.80–0.61 (57%)attempts 14–14goals 2–1
- Theodore – Hague2:16
xG 0.06–0.13 (31%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas7:08
xG 0.54–0.13 (81%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Schenn – Saad – Blais12:34
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kyrou – Thomas – Toropchenko6:34
xG 0.23–0.15 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Buchnevich – Vrana – Kapanen7:15
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug4:37
xG 0.29–0.07 (80%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Parayko – Tucker2:28
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Krug – Tucker7:44
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).