Sun, Mar 12, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Minnesota Wild 4, Arizona Coyotes 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 214 | 212 | 07 | 01 | 434 |
| ARI | 28 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:28ARIBarrett HaytonAssists: Juuso Välimäki, Brett Ritchie · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 5:32MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Jake Middleton, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 12:00ARIBarrett HaytonPPAssists: Brett Ritchie, Travis Boyd · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 18:35MINRyan ReavesAssists: Mason Shaw, Connor Dewar · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 1:50MINMatt BoldyAssists: John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 14:59MINConnor DewarAssists: Mason Shaw, Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 18:48ARIBrett RitchieAssists: Clayton Keller, Victor Soderstrom · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 12:06ARIClayton KellerAssists: Jack McBain, Barrett Hayton · Snap, 0.12 xG4–4
- OT 4:09ARIClayton KellerGWGAssists: Barrett Hayton, Juuso Välimäki · Backhand, 0.34 xG4–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:59ARIBokondji Imama: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:59MINRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:28ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:28MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:36MINFrederick Gaudreau: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:34ARIVictor Soderstrom: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 4:31ARIConnor Mackey: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:31MINMason Shaw: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:28ARIMilos Kelemen: Holding2 min
- P3 9:56ARIJack McBain: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:56ARILawson Crouse: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:56MINJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:06MINMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:08ARITravis Boyd: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Steel11:09
xG 0.42–0.08 (84%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar8:37
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 2–1
- Foligno – Sundqvist – Gaudreau6:27
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy10:47
xG 0.28–0.38 (42%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Dumba14:23
xG 0.70–0.26 (73%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Middleton16:20
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Merrill – Klingberg13:21
xG 0.48–0.66 (42%)attempts 11–12goals 2–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRitchie – Keller – Hayton12:11
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Boyd – O'Brien – Dauphin2:46
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Boyd – O'Brien – Kelemen3:46
xG 0.11–0.23 (33%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Kassian – Dauphin – Imama2:58
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Välimäki14:14
xG 0.61–0.34 (64%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
- Nemeth – Moser14:47
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Soderstrom – Mackey12:45
xG 0.26–0.98 (21%)attempts 7–19goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).