Sun, Mar 12, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 5, Anaheim Ducks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 210 | 016 | 28 | 12 | 536 |
| ANA | 17 | 113 | 215 | 02 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:01NSHPhilip TomasinoPPAssists: Dante Fabbro, Colton Sissons · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 13:40NSHTommy NovakAssists: Roman Josi · Snap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 15:44ANAMason McTavishAssists: Max Jones · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 4:46ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Cam Fowler, Jakob Silfverberg · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 1:47NSHKiefer SherwoodAssists: Tommy Novak, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 13:36NSHYakov TreninAssists: Cole Smith, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 17:39ANATroy TerryAssists: Colton White, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 19:34ANAMason McTavishAssists: Cam Fowler, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–4
- OT 1:12NSHTommy NovakGWGAssists: Philip Tomasino · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:11NSHMichael McCarron: Interference2 min
- P1 7:40ANAMaxime Comtois: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 16:20NSHJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:20ANAMax Jones: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Glass – Sherwood8:40
xG 0.53–0.21 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Duchene – Novak – Tomasino13:29
xG 0.70–0.60 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Duchene – Glass – Sherwood2:29
xG 0.07–0.11 (41%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- McCarron – Asplund – Afanasyev7:23
xG 0.13–0.17 (44%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Foote13:05
xG 0.73–0.30 (71%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Josi – Fabbro2:35
xG 0.33–0.18 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Barrie2:20
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Jones – McTavish11:00
xG 0.70–0.03 (95%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Vatrano – Lundeström10:33
xG 0.42–0.54 (44%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Grant – Comtois – Leason8:11
xG 0.26–0.42 (38%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Strome – McGinn – Zegras10:06
xG 0.59–0.91 (39%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – White2:05
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Benoit12:32
xG 0.67–0.45 (60%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Fowler – Harrington16:57
xG 0.79–0.86 (48%)attempts 16–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).