Tue, Mar 14, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 47 | 04 | 211 | 622 |
| PIT | 215 | 217 | 011 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21PITJake GuentzelAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 4:49PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel · Slap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 5:21MTLMike HoffmanAssists: Rem Pitlick, Justin Barron · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 7:13MTLJesse YlonenAssists: Mike Matheson, Rafael Harvey-Pinard · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P1 11:31MTLDenis GurianovAssists: Alex Belzile, Jonathan Drouin · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P1 19:49MTLJoel EdmundsonAssists: Johnathan Kovacevic, Jonathan Drouin · Slap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 10:57PITKris LetangAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P2 18:05PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.30 xG4–4
- P3 3:05MTLAnthony RichardGWGAssists: Justin Barron, Joel Edmundson · Snap, 0.10 xG5–4
- P3 19:25MTLJosh AndersonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG6–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:09MTLJosh Anderson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 9:20PITDrew O'Connor: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:45MTLAlex Belzile: Embellishment2 min
- P1 17:45PITSidney Crosby: Interference2 min
- P2 5:47MTLAlex Belzile: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:48MTLAlex Belzile: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:42PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:59MTLJustin Barron: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBelzile – Suzuki – Harvey-Pinard2:00
xG 0.18–0.04 (80%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Gurianov9:52
xG 0.69–0.56 (55%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Tierney – Richard – Pezzetta5:30
xG 0.14–0.36 (28%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Belzile – Pitlick9:34
xG 0.14–0.72 (16%)attempts 4–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Edmundson3:34
xG 0.09–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Savard – Guhle14:46
xG 0.50–0.86 (37%)attempts 9–21goals 1–1
- Edmundson – Barron9:46
xG 0.35–0.79 (31%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel12:44
xG 1.55–0.14 (92%)attempts 25–9goals 1–1
- Granlund – Rakell – O'Connor11:23
xG 0.87–0.10 (90%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Carter – Archibald – Heinen4:06
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 0–2
- Malkin – Zucker – Nylander11:13
xG 0.64–0.54 (54%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson15:52
xG 1.66–0.25 (87%)attempts 26–12goals 2–0
- Dumoulin – Joseph5:59
xG 0.64–0.18 (78%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Pettersson2:10
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).