Tue, Mar 14, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Calgary Flames 3, Arizona Coyotes 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 117 | 114 | 114 | 00 | 345 |
| ARI | 112 | 18 | 13 | 12 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:14CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 9:22ARIClayton KellerAssists: Barrett Hayton, Juuso Välimäki · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 0:55ARIMatias MaccelliAssists: Jack McBain, Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
- P2 2:03CGYWalker DuehrAssists: Milan Lucic, Noah Hanifin · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 2:01ARIClayton KellerSHAssists: Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 14:59CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Troy Stecher, Dillon Dube · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 3:10ARITravis BoydGWGAssists: Juuso Välimäki, Matias Maccelli · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 1:08ARILawson Crouse: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:24ARIJuuso Välimäki: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:17CGYNikita Zadorov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane13:46
xG 0.84–0.65 (56%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Lewis – Lucic – Duehr7:12
xG 0.09–0.06 (60%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Pelletier11:19
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Dube9:56
xG 0.27–0.42 (39%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin16:49
xG 0.97–0.38 (72%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Zadorov – Stecher13:54
xG 0.22–0.31 (42%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Weegar – Andersson16:14
xG 0.56–0.66 (46%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Crouse – McBain – Maccelli12:00
xG 0.67–0.64 (51%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Ritchie – Keller – Hayton13:01
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Boyd – O'Brien – Fischer8:31
xG 0.06–0.20 (23%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
- Kassian – Dauphin – Imama6:35
xG 0.01–0.18 (7%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSoderstrom – Mackey11:11
xG 0.61–0.43 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Välimäki – Soderstrom5:38
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Kesselring – Soderstrom2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).