Wed, Mar 15, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 8, St. Louis Blues 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 112 | 517 | 26 | 835 |
| STL | 39 | 110 | 117 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:43STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Torey Krug, Tyler Tucker · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 12:10MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Ryan Hartman · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 14:10STLJakub VranaPPAssists: Torey Krug, Jordan Binnington · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P1 17:53STLJakub VranaPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Brayden Schenn · Slap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 4:54MINJohn KlingbergAssists: Marcus Johansson, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 6:05MINOskar SundqvistAssists: Sam Steel, Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–3
- P2 6:52MINMason ShawAssists: Ryan Reaves, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P2 11:24STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- P2 12:25MINRyan HartmanPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.07 xG5–4
- P2 13:58MINAlex GoligoskiGWGAssists: Matt Boldy, Sam Steel · Backhand, 0.14 xG6–4
- P3 2:24MINRyan ReavesAssists: Alex Goligoski, Connor Dewar · Wrist, 0.16 xG7–4
- P3 8:30MINRyan HartmanSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG8–4
- P3 14:14STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Justin Faulk, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.06 xG8–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 11:30STLPavel Buchnevich: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:27MINAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:41STLJordan Kyrou: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:50MINJon Merrill: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:55MINJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:28STLJakub Vrana: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:25MINRyan Hartman: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:25MINMarc-Andre Fleury: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P2 12:25STLJordan Binnington: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P2 12:25STLJordan Binnington: Match penalty5 min
- P2 14:40STLBrayden Schenn: Misconduct10 min
- P2 18:09MINOskar Sundqvist: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:30MINMason Shaw: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Gaudreau – Steel9:18
xG 0.94–0.33 (74%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar6:44
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy9:20
xG 0.16–0.63 (21%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Walker10:05
xG 0.30–0.84 (26%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Addison10:10
xG 0.97–0.27 (78%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Spurgeon – Klingberg15:07
xG 0.38–0.87 (31%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Dumba14:05
xG 0.31–0.89 (26%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Saad – Blais8:15
xG 0.64–0.20 (76%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Buchnevich – Vrana – Kapanen7:20
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Pitlick – Walker – Alexandrov7:34
xG 0.21–0.01 (94%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas2:43
xG 0.06–0.00 (98%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Tucker9:06
xG 0.62–0.04 (94%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Scandella – Faulk8:36
xG 0.58–0.32 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Leddy – Parayko14:01
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).