Thu, Mar 16, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 5, Florida Panthers 9
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 36 | 113 | 111 | 530 |
| FLA | 719 | 216 | 07 | 942 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:16MTLMike MathesonAssists: Josh Anderson, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 2:43FLAColin WhiteAssists: Nick Cousins, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 3:17FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 5:20MTLAnthony RichardAssists: Kaiden Guhle · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P1 6:04FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P1 8:18MTLMichael PezzettaAssists: Anthony Richard, Chris Tierney · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–3
- P1 9:09FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P1 10:33FLARyan LombergAssists: Radko Gudas, Josh Mahura · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–5
- P1 12:22FLASam ReinhartGWGAssists: Josh Mahura · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–6
- P1 13:18FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–7
- P2 2:26MTLRafael Harvey-PinardAssists: Justin Barron, Joel Edmundson · Tip-in, 0.05 xG4–7
- P2 5:31FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Brandon Montour, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–8
- P2 7:33FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–9
- P3 5:47MTLRem PitlickPPAssists: Mike Matheson · Slap, 0.17 xG5–9
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:01MTLKaiden Guhle: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:36MTLChris Tierney: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 8:10MTLAnthony Richard: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:00FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:09MTLNick Suzuki: Cross checking5 min
- P3 17:09MTLNick Suzuki: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 17:09MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drouin won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Hoffman – Belzile – Pitlick9:58
xG 0.49–0.44 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Gurianov10:42
xG 0.34–0.42 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 1–3
- Suzuki – Ylonen – Harvey-Pinard10:51
xG 0.34–0.48 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 1–2
- Tierney – Richard – Pezzetta7:59
xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 9–9goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Barron13:28
xG 0.90–0.70 (56%)attempts 14–14goals 2–2
- Guhle – Barron2:34
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Savard – Guhle13:38
xG 0.14–0.61 (19%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk10:39
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 14–10goals 3–0
- Duclair – Barkov – Luostarinen10:47
xG 0.50–0.30 (62%)attempts 11–5goals 1–2
- Staal – Cousins – White8:27
xG 0.35–0.26 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 1–2
- Reinhart – Lomberg – Lundell12:23
xG 0.63–0.74 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling17:59
xG 0.91–0.51 (64%)attempts 24–11goals 2–0
- Staal – Montour14:31
xG 0.70–0.41 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 3–3
- Gudas – Mahura15:39
xG 0.73–0.81 (47%)attempts 14–17goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).