Thu, Mar 16, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 111 | 114 | 232 |
| NYR | 112 | 19 | 214 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:51NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Artemi Panarin, Vladimir Tarasenko · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 14:40PITRickard RakellAssists: Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 16:53NYRTyler MotteUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 9:09PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 11:45NYRChris KreiderGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 19:10NYRChris KreiderENAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.79 xG2–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 5:36PITMarcus Pettersson: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:21PITMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Guentzel7:06
xG 1.03–0.40 (72%)attempts 17–6goals 2–1
- Malkin – Zucker – Nylander8:01
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust6:25
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Carter – Archibald – Poehling4:49
xG 0.21–0.21 (49%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Pettersson4:48
xG 0.58–0.19 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Joseph – Rutta7:08
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Rutta4:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKane – Kreider – Trocheck12:30
xG 0.77–0.43 (64%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Motte11:11
xG 0.50–0.37 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière10:55
xG 0.64–0.55 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Zibanejad – Panarin13:28
xG 0.63–1.06 (37%)attempts 15–25goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller19:53
xG 1.09–1.01 (52%)attempts 18–26goals 2–1
- Mikkola – Fox15:26
xG 0.77–0.79 (49%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Harpur – Schneider12:52
xG 0.30–0.63 (32%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).