Thu, Mar 16, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Calgary Flames 7, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 212 | 410 | 730 |
| VGK | 06 | 28 | 05 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:05CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Tyler Toffoli · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 3:39CGYTyler ToffoliAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–0
- P2 12:33VGKZach WhitecloudAssists: Reilly Smith, Michael Amadio · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 15:54VGKReilly SmithAssists: William Karlsson, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 17:17CGYBlake ColemanGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 8:40CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 13:16CGYTyler ToffoliAssists: Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–2
- P3 15:43CGYBlake ColemanENAssists: Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.75 xG6–2
- P3 16:11CGYDillon DubeAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.09 xG7–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:34CGYNick Ritchie: Interference2 min
- P2 4:06CGYTroy Stecher: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:06VGKPaul Cotter: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:50CGYTyler Toffoli: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:14CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:33VGKBrett Howden: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:37CGYBlake Coleman: Holding2 min
- P3 17:11VGKAlec Martinez: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Lindholm – Mangiapane9:02
xG 0.97–0.02 (98%)attempts 13–7goals 3–0
- Ritchie – Dube – Ruzicka10:31
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Lewis – Lucic – Kadri7:13
xG 0.06–0.24 (20%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau10:16
xG 0.20–0.38 (34%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Andersson14:11
xG 0.84–0.17 (83%)attempts 14–5goals 3–0
- Tanev – Hanifin15:14
xG 0.61–0.20 (75%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Zadorov – Stecher11:52
xG 0.61–0.43 (58%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Stephenson – Amadio – Howden9:17
xG 0.11–0.16 (39%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Dorofeyev11:38
xG 0.38–0.48 (44%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Kessel – Blueger – Cotter8:04
xG 0.09–0.28 (24%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel9:56
xG 0.10–0.47 (18%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Martinez – Pietrangelo13:50
xG 0.36–0.55 (40%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
- Hague – Whitecloud14:27
xG 0.26–0.68 (28%)attempts 10–13goals 1–2
- McNabb – Theodore15:01
xG 0.40–0.93 (30%)attempts 9–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).