Thu, Mar 16, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Vancouver Canucks 2, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 110 | 011 | 110 | 231 |
| ARI | 110 | 113 | 14 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:14VANAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 19:30ARITravis BoydAssists: Liam O'Brien · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 12:44ARITravis BoydPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 1:19ARILawson CrousePPGWGAssists: Victor Soderstrom, Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 11:41VANElias PetterssonAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:34ARIVictor Soderstrom: Holding2 min
- P1 7:29ARIJuuso Välimäki: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:16ARIZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:16ARIZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- P2 2:21VANAndrei Kuzmenko: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:34ARITravis Boyd: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:35ARIVictor Soderstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:48VANJ.T. Miller: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:57VANAnthony Beauvillier: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aman won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDries – Kravtsov – Kuzmenko4:39
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Garland – Pettersson4:08
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Miller – Boeser – Podkolzin3:05
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Joshua – Garland – Aman7:15
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Wolanin9:10
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Wolanin – Hughes2:14
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes3:23
xG 0.06–0.09 (41%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRitchie – Keller – Hayton13:31
xG 1.00–0.66 (60%)attempts 27–8goals 0–1
- Boyd – O'Brien – Fischer5:25
xG 0.14–0.32 (30%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Crouse – McBain – Maccelli9:31
xG 0.05–0.24 (18%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Kassian – Dauphin – Imama5:45
xG 0.09–0.74 (11%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVälimäki – Kesselring12:32
xG 0.77–0.44 (63%)attempts 23–5goals 0–1
- Nemeth – Moser13:09
xG 0.09–0.38 (20%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Soderstrom – Mackey11:14
xG 0.39–0.93 (29%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).