Sat, Mar 18, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Colorado Avalanche 5, Detroit Red Wings 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 16 | 212 | 25 | 523 |
| DET | 116 | 08 | 010 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:01COLDevon ToewsAssists: J.T. Compher, Cale Makar · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 6:55DETPius SuterAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 7:24COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Denis Malgin, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 17:37COLBowen ByramPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 4:20COLLars EllerSHAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 5:16COLMikko RantanenAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:56COLLars Eller: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:58COLMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min
- P2 12:00DETSimon Edvinsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:49DETJake Walman: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:49COLMikko Rantanen: Holding2 min
- P2 16:46DETRobert Hagg: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:35COLAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:05DETAdam Erne: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Rantanen – Rodrigues11:58
xG 0.44–0.24 (64%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Nieto – Galchenyuk – Newhook6:25
xG 0.06–0.14 (28%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Compher – Nichushkin – Malgin7:23
xG 0.13–0.33 (28%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Eller – O'Connor7:53
xG 0.06–0.36 (15%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:05
xG 0.43–0.21 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Johnson – Byram3:14
xG 0.21–0.07 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Johnson – Toews2:56
xG 0.02–0.01 (55%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Kubalik – Copp9:55
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Veleno – Zadina – Berggren9:35
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Larkin – Suter – Raymond9:25
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Erne – Czarnik6:31
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Hagg2:09
xG 0.44–0.09 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Maatta – Oesterle13:49
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Hagg – Edvinsson11:26
xG 0.08–0.18 (30%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).