Sat, Mar 18, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 212 | 14 | 117 | 11 | 534 |
| PHI | 08 | 213 | 212 | 00 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:52CARSebastian AhoAssists: Martin Necas, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 16:51CARBrady SkjeiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 4:56PHITyson FoersterAssists: Morgan Frost, Brendan Lemieux · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 13:55CARSebastian AhoAssists: Stefan Noesen, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 18:18PHINoah CatesPPAssists: Tyson Foerster, Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–2
- P3 3:33PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Owen Tippett, Noah Cates · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 5:50PHIBrendan LemieuxAssists: Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–4
- P3 19:59CARMartin NecasPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.86 xG4–4
- OT 0:28CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.27 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 16:37CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:06CARBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:38CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:54CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:53PHIScott Laughton: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Noesen – Drury6:44
xG 0.31–0.04 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Aho – Necas – Jarvis2:51
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Fast – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis10:07
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Staal – Teravainen – Puljujarvi10:37
xG 0.18–0.55 (24%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce17:33
xG 1.21–0.80 (60%)attempts 25–11goals 2–1
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield11:09
xG 0.69–0.29 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Slavin – Chatfield2:26
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTippett – Cates – Farabee6:58
xG 0.77–0.32 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Lemieux – Frost – Foerster4:40
xG 0.53–0.37 (58%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Lemieux5:43
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Frost – Farabee – Foerster5:07
xG 0.13–0.12 (54%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – DeAngelo12:17
xG 0.64–0.37 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Provorov – York13:22
xG 0.99–0.74 (57%)attempts 10–18goals 0–2
- DeAngelo – York2:43
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).