Sat, Mar 18, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Islanders 4, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 110 | 214 | 19 | 433 |
| SJS | 19 | 08 | 013 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:31SJSKevin LabancAssists: Logan Couture, Nico Sturm · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 16:08NYIJean-Gabriel PageauSHAssists: Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 2:18NYIKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Scott Mayfield, Noah Dobson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 5:24NYIRyan PulockPPAssists: Hudson Fasching, Pierre Engvall · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 5:19NYIZach PariseAssists: Alexander Romanov, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Tip-in, 0.05 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:23SJSFabian Zetterlund: Interference2 min
- P1 5:17NYIAlexander Romanov: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:17SJSAndreas Johnsson: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:17SJSAndreas Johnsson: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:04SJSDerrick Pouliot: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:20NYICal Clutterbuck: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:55SJSKevin Labanc: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:16NYIPierre Engvall: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:57SJSErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Engvall8:19
xG 0.45–0.06 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Lee – Horvat – Holmstrom9:39
xG 0.47–0.15 (75%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Parise – Pageau – Fasching7:49
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:50
xG 0.14–0.51 (21%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech11:06
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Dobson4:15
xG 0.33–0.17 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock3:07
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Labanc – Eklund8:10
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Hertl – Johnsson – Barabanov10:37
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Lindblom – Lorentz – Kaut3:40
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Gregor – Kaut – Sturm2:32
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Ferraro2:04
xG 0.14–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Knyzhov2:28
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Pouliot15:09
xG 0.43–0.61 (41%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).