Mon, Mar 20, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Florida Panthers 5, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 29 | 110 | 26 | 525 |
| DET | 14 | 012 | 16 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:28FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 12:28FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 14:37DETPius SuterAssists: David Perron, Jake Walman · Poke, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 11:33FLAGustav ForslingGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 7:53DETDylan LarkinAssists: Lucas Raymond, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 16:08FLAEric StaalAssists: Anthony Duclair · Snap, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 18:37FLACarter VerhaeghePPAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:28DETDavid Perron: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 13:35FLAAnton Lundell: Holding2 min
- P3 2:24FLARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:24DETJoseph Veleno: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:18DETDylan Larkin: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk8:54
xG 0.81–0.22 (78%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Duclair – Lomberg – Lundell7:38
xG 0.51–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Duclair – Lomberg2:04
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Tkachuk – Luostarinen2:09
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura10:49
xG 0.83–0.07 (92%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Montour – Mahura2:19
xG 0.16–0.06 (72%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Montour – Forsling2:01
xG 0.00–0.04 (4%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Erne – Czarnik8:03
xG 0.27–0.09 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Perron – Suter – Berggren2:30
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Perron – Larkin – Raymond2:32
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Copp – Larkin – Raymond2:52
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Edvinsson10:08
xG 0.68–0.34 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Maatta – Seider2:03
xG 0.22–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Walman – Seider14:51
xG 0.59–0.71 (45%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).