Tue, Mar 21, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Arizona Coyotes 1, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 07 | 118 | 05 | 130 |
| WPG | 210 | 03 | 012 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:17WPGNikolaj EhlersUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 11:33WPGAdam LowrySHGWGAssists: Morgan Barron, Neal Pionk · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 11:46ARIBarrett HaytonAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:29WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:49WPGDylan DeMelo: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:01ARIJ.J. Moser: Holding2 min
- P2 3:44ARIConnor Mackey: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:44WPGMorgan Barron: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:01WPGAdam Lowry: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:45ARILaurent Dauphin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:58ARIMichael Kesselring: Holding2 min
- P3 5:15ARILiam O'Brien: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 18:17ARIJuuso Välimäki: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:25
xG 0.72–0.55 (56%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Boyd – Ritchie – Fischer3:59
xG 0.09–0.17 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Ritchie – O'Brien – Dauphin2:27
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Crouse – McBain – Maccelli9:31
xG 0.14–0.38 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVälimäki – Kesselring10:08
xG 0.51–0.28 (65%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Kesselring – Moser2:40
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Välimäki – Soderstrom2:04
xG 0.07–0.04 (66%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Ehlers – Dubois6:54
xG 0.49–0.16 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Lowry – Namestnikov – Appleton7:56
xG 0.50–0.30 (63%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Connor – Dubois2:57
xG 0.18–0.07 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Scheifele – Connor8:15
xG 0.15–0.61 (20%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Pionk6:20
xG 0.58–0.14 (81%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Dillon – DeMelo4:23
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Dillon – Capobianco2:32
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).