Wed, Mar 22, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Arizona Coyotes 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 14 | 18 | 15 | 00 | 317 |
| EDM | 110 | 113 | 17 | 11 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:47EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Zach Hyman, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 15:47ARIJ.J. MoserPPAssists: Matias Maccelli, Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 3:37ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 19:50EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.31 xG2–2
- P3 8:54ARIClayton KellerAssists: Barrett Hayton, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 12:17EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 1:31EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:38ARITravis Boyd: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:02ARIBarrett Hayton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 14:24EDMBrett Kulak: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:58ARIJuuso Välimäki: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:54EDMKailer Yamamoto: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:20ARIConnor Mackey: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBoyd – O'Brien – Fischer8:35
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton14:25
xG 0.79–0.87 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Crouse – McBain – Maccelli11:38
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Dauphin – Imama – Kelemen4:49
xG 0.00–0.60 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Nemeth – Moser19:28
xG 0.76–0.81 (48%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Soderstrom – Mackey10:15
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Välimäki – Kesselring14:00
xG 0.37–1.05 (26%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – McDavid – Yamamoto3:44
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Janmark – Foegele2:50
xG 0.23–0.00 (98%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto5:22
xG 0.16–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Janmark – Ryan – Kostin2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard12:58
xG 0.88–0.19 (82%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Kulak – Desharnais3:31
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse8:02
xG 0.63–0.52 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).