Thu, Mar 23, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Rangers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 03 | 18 | 15 | 216 |
| CAR | 113 | 012 | 05 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:47CARSebastian AhoAssists: Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 10:33NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 4:01NYRAdam FoxGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:05CARJack Drury: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:16CARJordan Staal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:26NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:35NYRMika Zibanejad: Holding2 min
- P2 4:13CARBrent Burns: Holding2 min
- P2 12:16NYRK'Andre Miller: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestChytil – Kakko – Lafrenière9:35
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Zibanejad – Panarin7:13
xG 0.59–0.48 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 2–1
- Kane – Kreider – Trocheck8:37
xG 0.17–0.30 (36%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Motte8:16
xG 0.00–0.43 (0%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Mikkola2:39
xG 0.23–0.02 (93%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller14:41
xG 0.56–0.46 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Mikkola – Fox12:33
xG 0.21–0.50 (30%)attempts 2–15goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Puljujarvi – Drury7:38
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Noesen10:42
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Martinook – Kotkaniemi8:51
xG 0.09–0.13 (41%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Aho – Necas – Jarvis11:36
xG 0.60–0.74 (45%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Chatfield11:18
xG 0.61–0.17 (79%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce14:20
xG 0.68–0.24 (74%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin14:33
xG 0.26–0.59 (31%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).