Thu, Mar 23, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 39 | 28 | 627 |
| FLA | 112 | 113 | 010 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:05TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 14:25FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Brandon Montour, Carter Verhaeghe · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 1:20TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 2:57TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 11:43FLANick CousinsAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Josh Mahura · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 18:21TORMichael BuntingPPAssists: John Tavares, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 14:23TORAlexander KerfootAssists: John Tavares, Jake McCabe · Snap, 0.16 xG5–2
- P3 15:49TORMitch MarnerENAssists: David Kampf · Wrist, 0.79 xG6–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:55FLAEric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:19FLARyan Lomberg: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:09TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:00TORMichael Bunting: Interference2 min
- P2 17:28FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:59FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:07TORErik Gustafsson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Marner – Matthews10:20
xG 0.65–0.40 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Bunting8:42
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Acciari – Aston-Reese – Kampf4:01
xG 0.10–0.04 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Lafferty – Acciari4:00
xG 0.02–0.06 (21%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Holl12:46
xG 1.24–0.56 (69%)attempts 21–14goals 2–0
- Schenn – Gustafsson7:27
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Brodie – McCabe14:32
xG 0.59–0.44 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Tkachuk7:23
xG 0.53–0.22 (70%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Staal – Cousins – Lomberg6:04
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- White – Smith – Lundell2:14
xG 0.03–0.02 (58%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Tkachuk – Luostarinen5:13
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura12:46
xG 0.54–0.25 (68%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Ekblad – Forsling14:31
xG 0.84–0.92 (48%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Staal – Montour14:47
xG 0.37–1.24 (23%)attempts 12–23goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).