Fri, Mar 24, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 4, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 213 | 05 | 213 | 431 |
| BUF | 312 | 25 | 09 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:29BUFDylan CozensAssists: Jack Quinn, JJ Peterka · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 7:08BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 9:07NJDYegor SharangovichAssists: Michael McLeod, Damon Severson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 10:55BUFJack QuinnAssists: Dylan Cozens, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P1 18:46NJDKevin BahlAssists: Jack Hughes, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 4:50BUFAlex TuchAssists: Jeff Skinner, Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 16:38BUFAlex TuchPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Victor Olofsson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–5
- P3 5:20NJDJack HughesAssists: Jesper Bratt, Kevin Bahl · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–5
- P3 9:33NJDJack HughesPPAssists: Nico Hischier, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.09 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:24NJDNico Hischier: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:51BUFHenri Jokiharju: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:55BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:36NJDDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min
- P2 15:17NJDMichael McLeod: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:23BUFDylan Cozens: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:31NJDDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Palat – Boqvist4:44
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hischier7:00
xG 0.69–0.32 (68%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes5:30
xG 0.43–0.11 (80%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Tatar – Hischier – Mercer4:31
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler9:33
xG 0.55–0.23 (71%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Bahl3:45
xG 0.22–0.08 (72%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Severson – Bahl7:31
xG 0.32–0.19 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 2–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson5:56
xG 0.56–0.40 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs6:54
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka7:09
xG 0.33–0.54 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 2–1
- Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt9:44
xG 0.07–0.28 (19%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClague – Bryson8:17
xG 0.55–0.22 (72%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin16:15
xG 0.40–0.59 (40%)attempts 10–16goals 2–1
- Lyubushkin – Power15:38
xG 0.69–1.04 (40%)attempts 12–23goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).