Sat, Mar 25, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Detroit Red Wings 0, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 08 | 013 | 029 |
| PHI | 06 | 28 | 18 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:10PHIKieffer BellowsGWGAssists: Owen Tippett, Scott Laughton · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 19:24PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 18:41PHITyson FoersterENAssists: Joel Farabee, Noah Cates · Wrist, 0.67 xG0–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:02PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 5:47PHITony DeAngelo: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 14:24DETAndrew Copp: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:42PHINoah Cates: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:32DETAdam Erne: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:27DETGustav Lindstrom: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:16PHITyson Foerster: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 9:16PHITyson Foerster: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:25PHIScott Laughton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Kubalik – Suter2:44
xG 0.23–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Perron – Larkin – Raymond3:18
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Czarnik – Luff – Berggren2:09
xG 0.02–0.03 (48%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Veleno – Berggren3:18
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Hagg7:04
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Maatta – Oesterle2:45
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hagg – Lindstrom3:21
xG 0.02–0.01 (65%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLemieux – Frost – Foerster5:07
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Allison5:54
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Tippett – Cates – Farabee5:21
xG 0.15–0.23 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Provorov3:31
xG 0.37–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Provorov – York5:48
xG 0.58–0.22 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – York2:05
xG 0.38–0.19 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).