Sat, Mar 25, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Seattle Kraken 7, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 213 | 116 | 410 | 739 |
| NSH | 01 | 110 | 15 | 216 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:13SEADaniel SprongAssists: Ryan Donato, Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 17:37SEAEeli TolvanenPPAssists: Jared McCann, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 1:43NSHTyson BarrieAssists: Philip Tomasino, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 17:16SEAEeli TolvanenGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 0:53NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Tyson Barrie, Philip Tomasino · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 3:37SEAAdam LarssonAssists: Jared McCann, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 8:13SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Vince Dunn, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–2
- P3 10:47SEAJared McCannUnassisted · Snap, 0.15 xG6–2
- P3 12:35SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Yanni Gourde · Bat, 0.17 xG7–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:13NSHLuke Evangelista: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 5:46SEAJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:48SEAMorgan Geekie: Holding2 min
- P1 14:10NSHColton Sissons: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 14:10NSHColton Sissons: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:10SEAVince Dunn: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:30NSHMatt Duchene: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:57SEAYanni Gourde: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:21NSHCal Foote: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Wennberg – Geekie8:20
xG 1.04–0.51 (67%)attempts 15–6goals 0–2
- Donato – Sprong – Tanev7:21
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen11:18
xG 0.40–0.20 (66%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers9:37
xG 0.36–0.33 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen15:22
xG 0.79–0.45 (64%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Schultz – Soucy11:35
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Larsson – Dunn14:42
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Glass – Tomasino10:55
xG 0.62–0.50 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Jankowski – Asplund – Afanasyev8:06
xG 0.12–0.22 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith9:13
xG 0.40–0.75 (35%)attempts 11–12goals 0–3
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista9:28
xG 0.03–0.57 (4%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- McDonagh – Fabbro15:28
xG 0.65–0.94 (41%)attempts 11–17goals 0–2
- Lauzon – Foote11:36
xG 0.34–0.88 (28%)attempts 9–16goals 0–2
- Barrie – Gross11:53
xG 0.37–0.94 (28%)attempts 9–14goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).