Sat, Mar 25, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 014 | 311 | 334 |
| PIT | 013 | 215 | 212 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:10PITRyan PoehlingAssists: Danton Heinen · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 12:17PITChad RuhwedelAssists: Jason Zucker, Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 0:27PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 5:19WSHTom WilsonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 13:18WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Dylan Strome · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 17:16WSHDylan StromeAssists: Conor Sheary, Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 18:40PITEvgeni MalkinGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:48WSHNicolas Aube-Kubel: Holding2 min
- P1 9:47WSHT.J. Oshie: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:28PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:03WSHRasmus Sandin: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 17:03PITJosh Archibald: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:52WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding2 min
- P3 3:42WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:20PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:14PITRyan Poehling: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Wilson – Strome10:01
xG 0.84–0.57 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Kuznetsov – Mantha3:53
xG 0.30–0.16 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Dowd – Sheary – Aube-Kubel7:44
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Protas9:30
xG 0.31–0.62 (33%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Alexeyev8:50
xG 0.67–0.08 (89%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry5:23
xG 0.55–0.24 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Jensen – Sandin4:23
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Zucker – Rakell6:13
xG 0.89–0.51 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Granlund4:10
xG 0.43–0.04 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Archibald – O'Connor4:57
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Rakell – Heinen – Poehling4:40
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Ruhwedel14:25
xG 1.06–0.54 (66%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Fedun – Friedman9:55
xG 0.93–0.41 (69%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Letang – Joseph19:12
xG 0.58–1.73 (25%)attempts 9–30goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).