Sun, Mar 26, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Colorado Avalanche 4, Arizona Coyotes 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 05 | 218 | 16 | 03 | 1 | 432 |
| ARI | 05 | 09 | 315 | 01 | 0 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:30COLMikko RantanenUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 10:46COLBowen ByramAssists: Logan O'Connor, Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–0
- P3 10:37ARIMatias MaccelliAssists: Jack McBain · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 11:37ARIChristian FischerAssists: Michael Kesselring · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 13:11COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 15:28ARIClayton KellerAssists: Juuso Välimäki, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. ARI Nick Schmaltz stopped
- 2. COL Evan Rodrigues stopped
- 3. ARI Clayton Keller stopped
- 4. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 5. COL Cale Makar stopped
- 6. ARI Barrett Hayton stopped
- 7. COL J.T. Compher stopped
- 8. ARI Lawson Crouse stopped
- 9. COL Denis Malgin stopped
- 10. ARI Christian Fischer stopped
- 11. COL Valeri Nichushkin scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:55COLDevon Toews: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:10COLCale Makar: Elbowing2 min
- P1 16:49ARINate Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:28ARIMichael Kesselring: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:59COLLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:49ARILiam O'Brien: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Rodrigues – Newhook7:56
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Helm – O'Connor6:32
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen11:57
xG 0.69–0.67 (51%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Eller – Nieto – Malgin5:34
xG 0.14–0.40 (26%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Girard – Byram14:20
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Toews – Makar14:39
xG 0.53–0.58 (48%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Johnson – Johnson11:44
xG 0.42–0.57 (43%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton14:49
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Crouse – McBain – Maccelli11:31
xG 0.88–0.68 (56%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- O'Brien – Fischer – Smith3:03
xG 0.02–0.22 (9%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Boyd – O'Brien – Fischer8:48
xG 0.12–0.51 (19%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVälimäki – Soderstrom9:29
xG 0.61–0.12 (83%)attempts 16–2goals 0–0
- Kesselring – Mackey6:17
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Soderstrom – Mackey6:01
xG 0.15–0.12 (57%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).