Mon, Mar 27, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Edmonton Oilers 5, Arizona Coyotes 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 310 | 113 | 16 | 529 |
| ARI | 214 | 06 | 213 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50ARIMatias MaccelliAssists: Jack McBain, Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 4:40EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 12:59ARIBarrett HaytonPPAssists: Lawson Crouse, Nick Schmaltz · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 13:34EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Warren Foegele, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P1 18:11EDMDarnell NurseSHAssists: Kailer Yamamoto · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 14:32EDMLeon DraisaitlUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 3:52ARIMatias MaccelliAssists: Lawson Crouse, Jack McBain · Poke, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 4:50ARIBarrett HaytonAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 12:05EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPGWGAssists: Evan Bouchard, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:34ARINate Smith: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 8:31EDMWarren Foegele: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:59EDMVincent Desharnais: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:39EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:41ARIVictor Soderstrom: Interference2 min
- P1 16:42EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:56ARIJoshua Brown: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:48ARIClayton Keller: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Janmark – Foegele9:05
xG 0.41–0.09 (81%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Kane – Janmark – McDavid2:25
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Shore – Ryan – Kostin8:05
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl10:54
xG 0.76–0.95 (45%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard18:26
xG 1.34–0.71 (65%)attempts 23–8goals 2–1
- Ceci – Nurse14:04
xG 0.46–0.66 (41%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
- Kulak – Desharnais11:55
xG 0.22–0.89 (20%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestCrouse – McBain – Maccelli11:06
xG 0.75–0.30 (71%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton15:00
xG 0.82–0.55 (60%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Boyd – O'Brien – Fischer9:47
xG 0.54–0.50 (52%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Smith – Kelemen3:16
xG 0.10–0.36 (22%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Välimäki15:12
xG 1.05–0.50 (67%)attempts 12–15goals 2–1
- Nemeth – Moser16:23
xG 0.98–0.85 (53%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Soderstrom – Mackey12:30
xG 0.22–0.60 (27%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).